The Ontario film industry is bracing for potential upheaval following Donald Trump’s recent threat to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian productions if he regains the presidency. This bombshell announcement has sent ripples through Toronto’s bustling entertainment sector, which has flourished in recent decades as “Hollywood North” and contributes billions to the provincial economy annually.
“We’re watching developments closely but want to emphasize that Ontario’s film and television industry remains strong and competitive,” said Neil Lumsden, Ontario’s Minister of Tourism, Culture and Sport, in an exclusive statement to CO24. “Our government continues to back this vital economic driver through tax credits and infrastructure investments.”
Trump’s unexpected tariff threat emerged during a campaign rally in Michigan last week, where he specifically targeted Canadian film productions. “Why should American jobs go to Canada? We’re going to put a 100% tariff on Canadian movies and shows,” Trump declared to supporters, characterizing the Canadian entertainment industry as unfairly benefiting from government subsidies at America’s expense.
The potential impact cannot be overstated. Ontario’s film and television production volume reached a record $3.15 billion in 2022, supporting approximately 48,000 direct and indirect jobs across the province. Toronto alone hosts major studios including Pinewood Toronto Studios and Cinespace Film Studios, which have attracted high-profile productions like “The Handmaid’s Tale” and “Star Trek: Discovery.”
Industry experts suggest Trump’s threats could fundamentally alter the calculus that brings Hollywood productions north. “The economics currently favor Ontario due to tax incentives, skilled crews, and favorable exchange rates,” explains film industry analyst Patricia Hernandez. “A 100% tariff would effectively double production costs for American companies working in Canada, making many projects financially unviable overnight.”
While Premier Doug Ford’s office has refrained from direct criticism of Trump’s statements, government sources confirm that contingency planning is underway. The province currently offers a 21.5% refundable tax credit for foreign productions, in addition to federal incentives that can push the combined savings to nearly 30%.
“This isn’t the first time we’ve faced challenges from south of the border,” noted Toronto Film Commissioner Marguerite Pigott. “Our industry has proven remarkably resilient over decades, and we’re confident in the fundamental advantages Ontario offers beyond mere cost considerations.”
The situation has echoes of previous trade tensions with the United States. Under the first Trump administration, Canada faced tariffs on steel and aluminum before eventually negotiating the USMCA trade agreement to replace NAFTA. Many industry observers view the current threat as a potential negotiating tactic rather than a concrete policy proposal.
Labour representatives are voicing more direct concerns. “This kind of reckless trade rhetoric puts thousands of Canadian creative jobs at risk,” said John Lewis, International Vice President and Director of Canadian Affairs for IATSE, the union representing film crews. “We’re calling on all levels of government to prepare robust responses that protect our members’ livelihoods.”
Canadian film industry stakeholders are particularly concerned about timing, as production schedules are typically planned months or years in advance. The uncertainty alone could prompt studios to delay or relocate projects currently slated for Ontario locations.
For communities beyond Toronto, including Hamilton, Sudbury, and North Bay, which have increasingly attracted productions seeking diverse filming locations, the economic consequences could be especially pronounced. These smaller markets have invested significantly in developing film-friendly infrastructure and services.
“We’ve transformed abandoned industrial spaces into thriving production facilities,” explained Hamilton’s Economic Development Director, Norm Schleehahn. “This sector has become a cornerstone of our economic revitalization strategy.”
As federal and provincial officials formulate response strategies, the question remains: can Ontario’s film industry weather yet another challenge to its competitive position, or will this threat fundamentally reshape Canada’s role in global entertainment production? For the thousands of Ontarians whose livelihoods depend on camera crews continuing to roll across the province, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
