The global oil market faces a complex trajectory ahead as demand continues to climb despite shifting consumption patterns in key economies. According to the International Energy Agency’s latest forecast released Tuesday, worldwide oil demand will maintain growth throughout this decade, even as China—the world’s largest oil importer—is projected to reach peak consumption by 2027.
“We’re witnessing a profound restructuring of global oil consumption patterns,” said Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director, during the report’s presentation. “While emerging economies in Asia and Africa continue to increase their energy needs, China’s transition toward cleaner alternatives represents a significant inflection point for global markets.”
The IEA projects global oil demand will increase by approximately 3.2 million barrels per day between now and 2030, reaching a peak of 105.4 million barrels daily. This growth trajectory comes despite accelerating renewable energy adoption and electric vehicle uptake in many developed economies.
China’s anticipated peak marks a dramatic shift in the global energy landscape. After decades of explosive growth that helped drive worldwide oil demand, Chinese consumption is expected to plateau and then gradually decline as the country aggressively pursues its carbon neutrality goals. According to CO24 Business analysis, this transition reflects China’s massive investments in renewable energy infrastructure and electric transportation.
Meanwhile, India and other emerging Asian economies are positioned to become the new engines of oil demand growth. The IEA estimates India’s consumption will increase by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day by 2030, accounting for nearly half of the projected global growth.
“The center of gravity for oil demand is shifting decisively toward emerging markets,” noted Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and energy historian. “Western policies may focus on transitioning away from fossil fuels, but demographic and economic realities in developing regions ensure oil remains central to the global energy mix for years to come.”
On the supply side, the report indicates non-OPEC producers, particularly the United States, Canada, and Brazil, will continue expanding production capacity. This projection suggests potential challenges for OPEC+ in maintaining price stability amid evolving demand patterns, as covered in recent CO24 World reporting.
The transportation sector remains the largest consumer of oil globally, though the report highlights significant differences in regional transitions. While Europe and North America accelerate electric vehicle adoption, the IEA expects conventional internal combustion engines to dominate vehicle sales in many developing regions through 2030.
The petrochemical industry also emerges as a crucial factor in sustaining oil demand growth. Even as transportation-related consumption potentially plateaus, petrochemical manufacturing—producing everything from plastics to fertilizers—continues to expand globally.
For Canada, these projections present both opportunities and challenges. As the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, Canada’s energy sector may benefit from continued global demand growth, but faces increasing pressure to reduce emissions intensity while maintaining economic competitiveness.
“The coming decade will be defined by dual imperatives,” explains Martha Hall Findlay, former president of the Canada West Foundation. “Nations must simultaneously ensure energy security and affordability while accelerating decarbonization efforts. This balancing act will shape investment decisions and policy frameworks worldwide.”
As the world navigates this transitional period in global energy markets, a critical question emerges: Can the global economy successfully manage the tension between growing energy demands and increasingly urgent climate imperatives, or will structural dependencies on fossil fuels delay meaningful progress toward a lower-carbon future?
