A significant shift is underway in the Greater Toronto Area’s real estate landscape as May figures reveal a pronounced 13.3 percent decline in home sales compared to the same period last year, while available inventory continues its steady climb. This emerging buyer’s market represents a marked departure from the frenzied conditions that characterized much of the post-pandemic period.
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported just 7,814 homes changed hands last month across the region, down from 9,012 in May 2023. This cooling trend coincides with a 33.9 percent year-over-year surge in active listings, bringing the total available properties to 16,908—a figure that offers prospective buyers substantially more options than the constrained inventory situation of recent years.
“Buyers currently have the luxury of choice and negotiating power that simply wasn’t available during the pandemic’s peak selling periods,” notes TRREB President Jennifer Burton. “The dramatic increase in available listings has shifted market dynamics in favor of those looking to purchase.”
Despite slower sales activity, prices have shown remarkable resilience. The average selling price across all housing types in the GTA stood at $1,196,586 in May, representing a modest 1.5 percent increase from last year. This stability in pricing, despite weakening demand, suggests sellers remain confident in the market’s underlying strength.
The condominium sector has experienced the most pronounced impact from changing market conditions. According to TRREB’s data, condo apartment sales fell 16.9 percent compared to May 2023, while available listings surged by 43.1 percent. This imbalance has created particularly favorable conditions for first-time buyers looking to enter the market through the condominium segment.
Market observers point to several factors driving the current conditions. Rising mortgage rates continue to dampen buying power, while economic uncertainty and inflation concerns have prompted many potential buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Additionally, Canada’s recent immigration policy adjustments have temporarily reduced one of the key demand drivers in the GTA housing market.
“The market is undergoing a natural recalibration after years of exceptional growth,” explains Catherine Moore, chief economist at Meridian Credit Union. “This isn’t a collapse by any measure—rather, it represents a return to more balanced conditions that benefit from increased supply.”
Regional variations across the GTA remain significant. York Region recorded the steepest sales decline at 19.7 percent, while Durham Region demonstrated greater resilience with only an 8.4 percent reduction. The City of Toronto itself saw sales drop by 12.8 percent compared to last year.
The single-family detached segment, traditionally the most stable part of the market, experienced a 10.2 percent sales decline while average prices held steady at $1.51 million. Semi-detached properties showed similar trends with transactions down 12.5 percent year-over-year.
TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer suggests the current conditions could persist through summer. “With the Bank of Canada potentially contemplating interest rate cuts later this year, we may see buyers who are currently on the sidelines re-enter the market in the fall. However, the substantial inventory currently available will likely prevent any immediate return to the seller’s market conditions we’ve seen in recent years.”
For potential buyers who have been frustrated by the competitive bidding wars and limited options of recent years, the current market represents a significant opportunity. However, industry professionals caution that regional economic fundamentals remain strong, suggesting the current buyer’s advantage may be temporary.
As the GTA continues to address its long-term housing supply challenges through various policy initiatives, the question remains: will this cooling period provide the breathing room needed for more sustainable growth, or is it merely a temporary deviation in Toronto’s persistently competitive housing market?
