In the rolling countryside of southwestern Ontario, a troubling trend is emerging that could permanently alter the educational landscape for rural communities. Five public schools in the Thames Valley District School Board (TVDSB) region are now operating at less than 60 percent capacity, placing them at significant risk of closure as enrollment numbers continue their steady decline.
The schools in question—A.J. Baker Public School in Kintore, Caradoc Public School in Mount Brydges, Ekcoe Central Public School in Glencoe, Valleyview Public School in Middlesex Centre, and North Middlesex District High School in Parkhill—represent crucial educational and community hubs in areas where alternatives are often distant and transportation challenging.
“When a rural school closes, we lose much more than classrooms,” explains Jennifer Martyn, a parent advocate from the Save Rural Schools Coalition. “These schools are the beating heart of our communities—they’re where families connect, where local traditions are passed down, and where our children develop their sense of belonging.”
The TVDSB has initiated what it calls a “pupil accommodation review,” a process required by the Ontario Ministry of Education when considering school closures. This review examines enrollment projections, facility conditions, and alternative options, but many rural residents feel the metrics fail to capture the true value these institutions provide to their communities.
According to board documents, the five schools range from 45 to 58 percent capacity utilization, falling well below the provincial benchmark of 65 percent. North Middlesex District High School faces particular challenges with only 269 students in a building designed for 591, representing a 45 percent utilization rate that has declined by 20 percentage points over the past decade.
The potential closures reflect broader demographic shifts across rural Ontario. Statistics Canada data shows rural populations aging more rapidly than urban centers, with many young families migrating to larger communities for employment opportunities. This demographic reality creates a challenging cycle—fewer children lead to school closures, which in turn make communities less attractive to young families.
“The metrics used to determine school viability are fundamentally urban-centric,” notes Dr. Michael Corbett, rural education researcher at Acadia University. “They privilege efficiency over community cohesion and fail to account for the unique social infrastructure rural schools provide.”
The TVDSB maintains that consolidation would allow for more robust programming and educational opportunities for students. Board spokesperson Richard Hoffman explains, “We’re faced with difficult decisions as enrollment declines. Our primary focus remains ensuring all students have access to the broadest possible educational experiences and opportunities.”
However, rural education advocates point to research suggesting smaller schools often provide superior educational outcomes for students, including higher graduation rates, stronger community connections, and more individualized attention. Studies from the Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation indicate rural school closures can accelerate community decline, with ripple effects on local businesses, property values, and population retention.
The potential closures have mobilized community resistance. In Glencoe, where Ekcoe Central Public School serves as a community anchor, local business owner Teresa Armstrong has organized weekly planning meetings. “If we lose our school, we lose our future,” Armstrong states. “Young families simply won’t move to communities without schools, and those already here will likely relocate.”
The Ontario government’s moratorium on rural school closures expired in 2018, and provincial funding models continue to challenge rural boards facing declining enrollment. Critics argue that per-pupil funding formulas inherently disadvantage low-population areas and fail to account for the broader community impact of educational institutions.
As the accommodation review process unfolds over the coming months, affected communities face uncertainty about their educational future. Public consultations are scheduled for early 2024, with final decisions expected by June. For many rural families, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
What remains to be seen is whether rural Ontario communities can forge innovative solutions to preserve their educational institutions, or if these closures represent an inevitable consequence of shifting demographics. As we watch this process unfold, perhaps the most profound question is: in our pursuit of educational efficiency, what value do we place on maintaining the vital connections between schools, communities, and rural ways of life?
