The upcoming G7 Summit in Canada has taken on heightened significance as former President Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House looms large over international diplomacy. Global markets and allied nations are bracing for what many analysts describe as a seismic shift in international relations should Trump secure victory in November’s presidential election.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government faces a delicate balancing act as it prepares to host world leaders in Quebec this June. Senior Canadian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that contingency planning is already underway for a scenario where Trump—who has repeatedly threatened punitive tariffs against Canada—reclaims the presidency.
“The shadow of 2018 hangs heavily over this summit,” notes Dr. Eleanor Westbrook, international relations professor at McGill University. “The image of Trump departing early from the Charlevoix summit after withdrawing his signature from the joint communiqué remains a diplomatic wound that hasn’t fully healed.”
Canadian trade officials are particularly concerned about Trump’s campaign pledges to implement sweeping tariffs of up to 10% on all imported goods, with potentially higher rates for Canada. The economic implications could be devastating for Canada, which sends approximately 75% of its exports to the United States, representing roughly 20% of its GDP according to Canada’s trade data.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has been coordinating with European and Japanese counterparts to develop a unified approach to potential trade disruptions. “We’re not just preparing for the summit, we’re preparing for potentially dramatic shifts in the global economic landscape,” an adviser to Freeland told CO24 News.
The summit agenda has been carefully crafted to focus on areas where consensus might still be possible, including global security challenges and climate resilience, though the latter remains a contentious topic given Trump’s previous withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement.
Middle East tensions have added another layer of complexity to the diplomatic gathering. With the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and regional instability, G7 leaders are expected to formulate a coordinated approach that may become obsolete should American foreign policy pivot dramatically after November’s election.
Defence analysts point to heightened concerns about NATO’s future and collective security arrangements. Trump’s previous criticisms of the alliance and demands for increased European defence spending have not been forgotten. Canadian defence officials are reportedly accelerating reviews of military cooperation frameworks in anticipation of potential shifts in American security guarantees.
“What makes this summit unique is its timing,” explains Dr. Michael Henderson, director of the Centre for International Policy Studies. “It’s occurring at a moment when the international order established after World War II faces its most significant challenge in decades. Leaders must simultaneously address immediate crises while preparing for a potentially radically different diplomatic landscape.”
For Canadian politics, the summit represents both opportunity and risk. The Trudeau government, facing declining popularity domestically, could benefit from a successful international showcase. However, any missteps in managing the delicate relationship with the potential future American president could prove costly.
Business leaders across Canada are monitoring developments closely. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has established a working group specifically focused on preparing for possible trade disruptions. “We’ve been here before,” said Jennifer Morton, chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “But the scope of the proposed tariffs this time would represent a fundamental reshaping of North American economic integration.”
As summit preparations intensify, the question increasingly being asked in diplomatic circles is not simply how to manage this particular gathering, but whether the G7 itself can remain relevant in an era of renewed nationalism and economic protectionism. Will this Canadian-hosted summit be remembered as the last gasp of the post-war liberal international order, or the beginning of its reinvention for a more fragmented world?
