As whispers of renewed trade tensions ripple across North America, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has moved to quell concerns about Donald Trump’s proposed tariff regime, suggesting the province’s robust trading relationship with the United States would likely weather any potential economic storm.
During a press conference in Regina yesterday, Premier Moe addressed growing anxieties about Trump’s campaign promises to implement sweeping tariffs of up to 20% on all imports from Canada, characterizing such threats as “largely political rhetoric” that would face significant pushback from American industries dependent on Canadian resources.
“Saskatchewan exports approximately $16 billion in goods annually to the United States, with potash, agricultural products, and energy resources leading the way,” Moe stated. “These are essential inputs for American manufacturing and food production—sectors that would vigorously oppose any measures that increase their operational costs.”
Economic analysts from the Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership (STEP) support the Premier’s assessment, noting that previous tariff disputes during Trump’s first administration had minimal impact on the province’s key export sectors. Chris Dekker, CEO of STEP, explained that “the integrated nature of North American supply chains creates natural safeguards against extreme protectionist measures.”
However, not all share the Premier’s confidence. Opposition critics point to the devastating impact Trump’s 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs had on Canadian metal producers, suggesting that Saskatchewan’s reliance on cross-border trade makes it particularly vulnerable to economic nationalism.
“We’ve seen this playbook before,” said NDP Trade Critic Aleana Young. “What begins as campaign rhetoric often translates into real policy with real consequences for Saskatchewan workers and businesses.”
Trade data reveals that approximately 55% of Saskatchewan’s exports are destined for American markets, creating an undeniable dependence that could leave the provincial economy exposed to policy shifts south of the border. The agriculture sector appears particularly vulnerable, with over 60% of the province’s agri-food exports heading to U.S. consumers.
Premier Moe emphasized that provincial officials are already engaging with federal counterparts to develop contingency plans. “We’re not being naïve about the challenges that could emerge,” he said. “Our trade representatives in Washington are actively working to strengthen relationships with key allies in Congress and industry associations that benefit from our exports.”
The province has also been diversifying its trade relationships, with significant growth in exports to markets in Asia and Europe over the past five years. This strategic pivoting may provide some insulation against U.S. trade volatility, though economists caution that no alternative market can fully replace the scale and proximity advantages of American trade.
University of Saskatchewan economics professor Jason Childs offers a measured perspective: “While there’s reason for cautious optimism, Saskatchewan businesses would be wise to prepare for increased trade friction. The Trump administration’s first term demonstrated a willingness to use tariffs as negotiating leverage, regardless of economic impacts.”
As both countries navigate this period of uncertainty, the question remains: can Saskatchewan’s trade-dependent economy truly remain insulated from the protectionist sentiments gaining momentum in American politics, or is Premier Moe’s confidence merely postponing an inevitable reckoning with changing trade realities?
